Canada Set to Lose Measles Elimination Status, and the U.S. and Mexico Could Follow

Canada is expected to lose its measles elimination status this month after 27 years of achieving and maintaining it. The U.S. and Mexico may lose their elimination status soon after, as measles outbreaks continue to surge across North America.

What is 'Measles Elimination Status'?

The World Health Organization (WHO) defines elimination as the absence of continuous disease transmission for at least 12 months in a specific geographic area. Canada first achieved measles elimination in 1998, the U.S. in 2000, and Mexico in 2016. Losing this designation indicates that disease continues to spread – a sign that population immunity has fallen below a level to prevent disease transmission.

Latest Data: Measles in Canada, the U.S., and Mexico

• Because measles is so infectious, vaccination rates of 95% or more are recommended to prevent measles spread within communities. Two doses of the MMR vaccine are estimated to be 97 percent effective at preventing measles.

• In the past 12 months, Canada recorded over 5,000 confirmed cases of measles and two infant deaths, with national immunization rates falling to 92% (one dose) and 79% (two doses), below herd immunity levels.  Many areas have immunization rates well below the national averages.

• The U.S. has reported over 1,600 confirmed cases across 42 states in 2025 alone, a 33-year high, leading to three deaths and 197 hospitalizations, as of Oct. 21. In total, 92% of patients were either unvaccinated or their status was unknown.

• MMR vaccination rates among U.S. children have dipped from more than 95% in 2019 to under 93 percent for the 2023-24 school year. While this change may seem small, the implications can be huge – controlling recent outbreaks has led to quarantines of hundreds of unvaccinated children, and 86 percent of U.S. cases this year are part of outbreak clusters.

• Mexico faces even graver statistics, with almost 4,500 confirmed cases and 19 related deaths so far this year. The Mexican state of Chihuahua alone has reported more cases than any U.S. state. MMR vaccine coverage in Mexico is estimated at 89% for the first dose and 76% to 79% for the second, both below the recommended threshold. The largest outbreaks and fatalities have hit indigenous and Mennonite communities, driven by vaccine hesitancy.

The Common Thread: Declining Immunization Rates

The resurgence in measles is directly linked to falling immunization rates in all three countries. In Canada, the U.S., and Mexico, vaccination rates have dropped well below levels needed for effective communal protection. Vaccine misinformation, distrust toward health experts, and increasing hesitancy have accelerated these declines, fueling preventable outbreaks.

Why the U.S. Must Lead with Data and Clarity

The MMR vaccine is one of the safest and most rigorously studied tools in public health. With decades of data supporting its combined formula, clear messaging from U.S. health authorities is vital - for the nation and its neighbors. The loss of measles elimination in Canada – and potentially across the Americas - should serve as a wake-up call. The loss of hard-won health advancements is a stark reminder that public health achievements are fragile. Rebuilding confidence in vaccines and combatting misinformation are not optional; they are essential to protect lives and prevent diseases we already know how to stop.

As nations across the region confront this challenge, the U.S. has both the opportunity and responsibility to lead with clarity: Immunization saves lives, safeguards communities, and remains one of the greatest public health successes of our time. It’s time to fight to address misinformation, protect vaccine access, and preserve our elimination status.